ttThe European road freight transport market has returned to growth in 2025, reaching €440bn after a period of near-stagnation, according to new research published today by Ti Insight (Ti). The market is forecast to grow steadily to €483bn by 2030, driven by strengthening international trade flows, regulatory shifts, and structural changes across the sector.
2025: A Firm Recovery
Ti estimates the European road freight market reached €440,388m in 2025, representing real growth of 1.4% year-on-year — a significant turnaround from the flat conditions seen in 2024.
Both major segments contributed to the recovery:
International road freight grew 1.4% to €136,754m — notable given contractions in 2023 and near-flat performance in 2024, signalling that cross-border trade flows are now on a more sustainable upward trajectory.
Domestic road freight expanded 1.3% to €303,633m, underpinned by improving consumer demand and resilient labour markets.
The recovery reflects broader macroeconomic improvement: EU real GDP grew 1.5% in 2025, supported by easing inflation and moderating energy prices. Diesel price moderation has also provided some cost relief for operators. However, the rollout of CO₂-based tolling systems across Germany, Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic continues to structurally reshape cost bases, particularly for older, higher-emission fleets.
2026: Continued Momentum, with Downside Risks
Ti projects the market will grow a further 1.6% in real terms in 2026, reaching €447,638m.
International freight is expected to accelerate to 2.2% growth, outpacing domestic expansion of 1.4%, as intra-EU and cross-border trade normalises following the 2022 energy shock and subsequent freight market correction.
However, GDP downgrades across Germany, France, and Italy, alongside the risk of a Middle East energy shock, have shifted the near-term risk balance to the downside since the start of the year.
Five-Year Outlook: Steady Structural Growth to 2030
Looking to 2030, Ti forecasts the European road freight market will reach €483,468m, growing at a 1.9% average real rate per annum. Key projections include:
International freight: CAGR of 2.4%, reaching €153,665m by 2030, driven by expanding intra-EU trade and improved cross-border logistics infrastructure.
Domestic freight: CAGR of 1.7%, reaching €329,803m, supported by e-commerce growth and regional supply chain development.
Growth will be shaped by several structural forces: gradual fleet electrification, tightening carbon emission regulations, persistent driver shortages, and the incremental adoption of digital freight technologies. Market consolidation among larger operators is expected to continue, though significant fragmentation will remain.
